The End of this Blog as You Know It

After 7 years and over 300 posts, I have decided to end Try Reason!  You can continue to follow me at ProfessorDrake.com or Reason for Success

For my Feed subscribers, I will forward you the blog posts from Reason for Success or you can directly subscribe here: Subscribe in a reader.  I hope all of you will continue to find my posts stimulating and inspiring. 

This site will remain in existence for the time being.  I see no reason to delete it and may still use it sometime in the future.

5 year goals update

Time to revisit my 5 year goals.  Lately, there have been two major interconnecting questions consuming my plans for the future - 1) How should I focus my career? and 2) How to establish my financial security?

As I have mentioned several times before, I have been contemplating how to focus my career for the past year.  I have now come to a clear direction - developing myself into web technology guru helping others make good decisions with web technologies.  I'm not interested in being a specialist, like Facebook app guy or a eBay store expert.  Instead, I want to be knowledgeable enough across the e-commerce domain to be an effective consultant, researcher, and educator in utilizing web technologies strategically to improve business processes.  This is significantly different than my research agenda just 2 years ago, which included significant research in ethics.  While I'm still interested in ethics and will still does some research in that area, the switch to e-commerce aligns my research with my teaching and with my financial goals.

In the financial realm, I want to develop a system for wealth generation that is more recession proof and less dependent on stock fluctuations.  I am still worried about the economic condition of our country and where we might be 20-30 years from now.  There is also a large unknown as to how the university system might change in the coming years.  To address those concerns, I need to develop a system for wealth generation that can both build wealth rapidly and withstand economic upheaval, should it occur.

SMART 5 year goals:

1. Research and publish at least 10 articles in e-commerce. 2 were done this year, so only 8 more to go.
2. Get promoted to Associate Professor.  The research above will help with the above goal.  It will also help establish myself as an expert for my later initiatives, listed below.
3. Establish and promote several web based businesses generating at least $20k a year passive income.
4. Develop and market high quality training modules in e-commerce for my classes and to publish on YouTube.  I start my first round of recordings this summer.
5. Establish and promote a consulting/education business using the above training modules for marketing and earning at least $36k a year.
6. Establish a real estate investment business to invest earnings from other businesses.
7. Double household income - from the above initiatives and my wife returning to work.
8. Support and encourage my family with their goals.

The trick will be to devote enough time in my evenings and weekends to get the web businesses up and running.  To get there, I plan on using what I learn from 100grandbrand.com, internetbusinessmastery.com, smartpassiveincome.com, and whatever other resources I discover along the way.  In the process, I'll be developing knowledge to help with my classroom instruction and research.  The training modules are part of my e-commerce class I teach at ECU, so the time spent on those classes are part of my normal job responsibilities.  If they are successful, I might push myself to develop more modules above and beyond what's necessary for class.  Those modules could then be encapsulated into package deals to sell for aspiring small business owners and/or web developers.  In the real estate investments, I currently own a house in Michigan that I'm renting.  I also have experience with owning a duplex.  I plan to capitalize on that knowledge and expand my investments.  If I spend time setting things up right and only investing in high ROI items, I should be able to make descent returns with minimal effort.

And then there are my nice to get to goals, but not high priorities:

1. Write a book on productivity and goals
2. Write a autobiography on one of my major life decisions (Not saying what it is yet :)
3. Write a textbook or two
4. Publish an article in a top journal in my field

I have an endless supply of ideas and not nearly enough time to do them.  It's a great feeling.

Vision, I don't need no stinking vision

Well, yes!  Actually I do.

You see, there are many things I want in life.  A boat, a $300,000 home, a camper, a mountain retreat, a summer beach house, a new computer, etc.  And its not just physical things that I want.  I want to live in a land where people respect individual rights, where everyone takes responsibility for their own thoughts and actions, where people are motivated to make the best out of their lives, where my kids are free to become the adults they dream they can be, where my wife and I live happily ever after, etc.

Well, all of these things require a vision of the life that I want.  And before I can start acting towards that life, I need to clearly identify what it is I want.  Otherwise, my actions could lead me anywhere.  How could I tell if a particular thing I'm doing today will help me get the things I want for tomorrow?  By what standard?  Should I buy a new car or a used car?  Do I want broadband Internet access or dial-up?  In my free time, should I go camping with my family, read a book on architecture, or write an op-ed for my local newspaper?  The answer to these questions all depend on the vision I hold.  The clearer my vision, the better I can define my goals.  The better I can define my goals, the easier it is to identify the actions necessary to complete those goals and actuate my vision.

Without a clear vision, I could not define my goals.  Goals require an awareness in the difference between where I am now and where I want to be.  If I don't know where I want to be, I can't define a goal.  Without goals, any action is equally valid.  No one action can be considered more important than any other.  By default, actions without goals tend to gravitate toward short term satisfaction and momentary pleasures.  Getting drunk with your friends every weekend.  Blowing your paycheck on frivolous entertainment.  Extreme adrenaline rushing thrills.  While occasional indulgences are useful for relaxing or making life interesting, they should not occupy one's central purpose in life.

So, yes, I do need a vision.  Yes, I do need a clear view of the world I want to live in so that I can direct my actions.   And yes, I will work toward that vision.

Choosing between Career Paths

I love my job as an academic.  However, this morning I realized that I have been conflicted on how to spend my time during breaks (i.e. winter break, spring break, and summers).  There are two possible ways to focus my attention, each leading to two rewarding career paths, as either the philosopher-writer or the consultant-business owner.  I'm afraid that if I try to do both, I'll fail at both because these are part time emphasizes.  To do them well, I need to focus all my time and effort on one to maximize the return on my investment.

With the philosopher-writer career, my specialization in Objectivism could be maximized so that I could write research articles applying the philosophic principles to information systems.  There are very, very few professors in information systems with this specialization, so I would have wide opportunities for contributions.  I have re-considered applying to the Objectivist Academic Center as a means of improving my core understanding of Objectivism and improve my skills as a writer.  As I progress in my career, I would like to write several books, both textbooks and popular press books, with my particular interest in information systems history and the conceptual approach to education.  

In the other career track, I would focus on developing a deep understanding of application of concepts, specifically in Internet technologies, cloud computing, and Internet marketing.  My research would focus more on human computer interaction with Internet technologies.  I would spend more time learning about various development frameworks, project management concepts, and analysis and design practices.  Consulting engagements could flow from these skills.  As my career progresses, I would start some small businesses to capitalize on industry needs and supplement my financial plan.

Up until now, I have been explicitly leaning towards the former path, but realized that the latter path kept creeping into my to-do list.  So here I explicitly acknowledge my dual interests.  Both career paths have equal interest at this point.  Both have good research opportunities and continuing cash flows.  Both would challenge me in new and exciting ways.  Both fit within my central purpose in life.  But my focus must ultimately rest with one or the other.  Which to choose?  I don't know, but I may be talking with a number of people in the future to help me make my decision.

Singularity

To end my class in the Intro to Information Systems, I'm exploring future predictions of technology innovation.  There are a lot of interesting predictions, but one that I find fascinating is the idea of the Singularity.

Futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil has predicted the singularity in about 30 years.  In this Ubiquity interview with Ray, he states his premise:

I make the case that this exponential progression will lead us to an understanding of human intelligence. And by understanding I mean we will have detailed mathematical models and computer simulations of all of the regions of the brain by the mid 2020s. So by the end of the 2020s we'll be able to fully recreate human intelligence. You may wonder: "OK, what's the big deal with that? We already have human intelligence; in fact, we've got six billion human brains running around, so why do we need more?" One of the answers to that question is that it will be a very powerful combination to combine the subtle and supple powers of human pattern recognition with ways in which machines are already superior. 

While I do not doubt our ability to understand pattern recognition to a very great extent, I believe that his definition of intelligence rests primarily on pattern recognition and not concept formation.  It may be possible to simulate concept formation in computers, I'm just not convinced it will be achieved in 20 years.  Regardless of the timeline, the ultimate effect may be profound.

Ray goes on to say:

My second point is that nonbiological intelligence, once it achieves human levels, will double in power every year, whereas human intelligence—biological intelligence—is fixed. We have 10 to the 26th power calculations per second in the human species today, and that's not going to change, but ultimately the nonbiological side of our civilization's intelligence will become by the 2030s thousands of times more powerful than human intelligence and by the 2040s billions of times more powerful. And that will be a really profound transformation.

The difficulty with this statement is how can intelligence be more powerful.  Is it simply faster?  Can it remember more?  Undoubtedly true.  Can it think better?  That is a subject we cannot fathom at this point, but sound highly suspect.

My second difficulty is with the assumption that human do not enhance their own cognitive capacities through integration with computing machines.  Simple electronic interfaces already exist in Cochlear implants, prosthetics, and BrainGate.  In 20 years, we may be able to achieve fantastic integration of computers and brain functionality.  Eventually, we may be able to download our memories or learn new skills Matrix style.

There is also the difficulty of moving this intelligence into economically feasible applications.  As another futurist Max More points out:

I also see a tendency in many projections to take a purely technical approach and to ignore possible economic, political, cultural, and psychological factors that could dampen the advances and their impact.

And to that I agree.

Long term trends look a bit gloomy

I worry about the future.  Especially 20 years down the road.  There is a major demographic change that will occur that will surely plunge our country into a long, long recession, if not a full blown depression, not unlike what Japan has experienced.  The baby boomers are going to retire.

There are several problems with this change:
1. The outlays for Medicare and Social Security will rise.  But the funds to do so are not there.  We will need to drastically increase taxes to afford these programs.  And since baby boomers are such a large voting bloc, they will likely do so.
2. Since the baby boomers are retiring, their income will drop dramatically, so they will not be paying those taxes.
3. Businesses will lose many of their most experienced workers, thereby hurting their chances for growth and possibly their bottom line.
4. Smaller business growth means smaller profits and smaller taxable income.
5. Business stagnation will mean lower stock prices. 
6. Retirees often want to switch from growth to income investments.  There will likely be many retirees pulling money out of the stock market and into other income investments, thereby draining the stock market of much needed capital.
7.  Businesses, unable to raise sufficient capital through stock issues, will struggle to grow, further depressing the economy.
8.  Even if ObamaCare does not pass in total, sufficient changes will likely pass that will raise costs of medical care.  With an aging population, more and more of our economy will have to support their medical care (again, because they will likely vote themselves the money).  This means less capital for other industries.
9. As America goes, so goes the rest of the world.

Our best hope to avoid such a deep recession or possible depression is to remember our individual rights.  America must relearn respect for each individual and stop mooching off of others.  We must teach people about the role of individual rights and become activists in the pursuit of freedom.  We must defend individualism and selfishness and demonstrate the facts associated with looting Peter to pay Paul. 

We must become educators!

Textbook on the Introduction to Information Systems

As I mentioned previously, I expect to gain extra time from improving efficiency and gain time after I complete re-writing my Intro to Information Systems class.  With this time and interest, one project I would like to tackle in a few years is to write a textbook that captures and facilitates teaching this class that objectively identifies the principles used in designing, building, and using information systems. Essentially, I expect for my goal to evolve from one of building my ideal course into one of capitalizing on that work. 

By considering how to capitalize on my intellectual property, I have started to recognize the necessity for marketing this class to other professors and publishers.  Besides exciting me to work harder on my immediate goal, it has prompted me to write up some of my thinking for publication and conference proceedings.  When a colleague of mine suggested writing an article for a track in Innovative Education he is chairing next year at the national DSI conference, I immediately considered writing a manuscript that argues for this new approach in Intro IS classes.  I may do the same for other conferences aimed directly at IS academics, such as AMCIS or ICIS and various regional conferences.  I will also attempt to publish this approach and any objective measures of success in relevant journals.  By demonstrating the logic and practicality of this approach, I expect to create demand for something that does not yet exist, but will.

I would also like to thank Adam Reed for recognizing the value in this approach to teaching Information Systems, for inspiration by writing his own course based on these ideas, and for his offer to collaborate on a textbook.  His excitement has in part helped me to refocus my efforts for long term success.

Capitalism in practice

What took $3 billion 10 years ago, will soon cost under $1000. In 2003, the Human Genome Project finished scanning the human genome at a cost of $3 billion dollars. Today, IBM is developing a computer chip that could reduce the cost to under $1000. At that cost, every doctor in America could own such a chip and scan your genetics. Such detailed information would enhance genetics research and provide doctors with the means of providing far more individualized services.

Another example of why I love capitalism.

Google Wave

For all of the techie fans of my blog, watch this video about Google Wave. A very innovative product/platform for communication and collaboration on the web that includes elements of instant messaging, wiki, email, message board, document sharing, and every imaginable Web 2.0 concept, into a single platform for interaction.



The possibilities are extremely exciting.

Auto economics - the future of Chrysler, GM, and other auto manufacturers

On Friday morning, I attended a presentation by Charles Chesbrough, Senior Economist at CSM Worldwide, about the future of the automotive industry. This presentation was part of the Dean's Breakfast series at EMU's College of Business. Overall, the presentation was informative but did contain several major shortcomings.

The interesting:

1. Overview, I enjoyed the review of metrics used to track economic growth and contraction in general. According to Charles, we should see solid turn-around numbers middle to late this year.
   
2. Obama's stimulus bill is larger than all other major U.S. spending projects in history - COMBINED. Using inflation adjusted dollars, the $8.7 trillion available in TARP funds is bigger than the Louisiana Purchase, the New Deal, the Marshal Plan, WW II, Vietnam War, the space program, and Iraq-Afgan War - combined.
   
3. Because of #2, the federal deficit may reach 100% of GDP by 2014. Again, the U.S. is reaching an unprecedented area. Either taxes will have to increased dramatically, more money will have to printed (inflation?) or our federal government will go bankrupt.
   
4. On the automotive side, expected car sales in countries such as India and China (assuming they continue their current growth) will likely be larger than the U.S. within 30 years. For the companies that can establish a footprint in this two countries, they will likely see excellent growth.
   
5. Chrysler will likely have a prolonged death. According to Charles, there are no new technologies in the pipeline for Chrysler. So even with the massive bailout today, in 5 years, Chrysler cars will not be even remotely competitive. Even with its merger with Fiat, its doubtful that anyone in the U.S. will want to buy a Fiat.
   
6. Many auto suppliers will go out of business. For the past 20 years, the big 3 have been squeezing the margins of the suppliers. Their profit margins are so low, that many will likely have to file for bankruptcy before the recession is over.
   
7. Many of the Asian car manufacturers will weather the recession quite well. Honda and Toyota have lean dealership networks, less overhead, and higher profit margins. While their sales have fallen, it has not been as severe as the big 3. They will likely bounce back quickly after the recession.
   

The short comings with the presentation:

1. Although Charles never explicitly admits to being a Keynesian economist, he supports Obama's economic policies and calls Obama's policies Keynesian. Unfortunately, Keynesian has a history of being wrong.
   
2. No discussion of inflation potential. With the massive spending of unprecedented scale, their is a real fear of high inflation over the next few years. Charles does not discuss that impact on the recovery.
   
3. Charles does not understand the causes of economic growth. As one questioner explicitly challenged the presenter with, Charles assumes the economy must be stimulated. He believes that the government can throw money around and that will fix all the problems. He states that the government needs to create "desire". But these measures must take money away from other sources. Besides being highly inefficient, its profoundly immoral.
   
4. And not too surprisingly considering the above, Charles argued for a higher gas tax to force consumers to buy small cars, thereby allowing automotive companies to better predict the future. Nothing like good old fashioned communism economic engineering.

[Update: Fixed factual error on the extent of the spending. Its 8.7 trillion, not billion. And its from the TARP funds, not the stimulus.]

A changing tide?

Last November, I noted that Obama's morality is one shared by the villains of Atlas Shrugged. Obama was quoted saying, "You know I don’t know when, when they decided they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness." [Bold mine]. It was unclear if Obama, refers to selfishness in the same way as I do. Whether he regards selfishness as a short-term, hedonistic, whim based value system or as a long-term, objective, rational based value system (I believe the latter). But it was clear that Obama believes altruism is moral system that should be applied to politics.

In the comments of that post, Burgess Laughlin made an interesting point. Essentially, he said that Obama will make an easy target. Because Obama's political and moral views are so explicit, it will be much easier for defenders of freedom to pin-point the errors, flaws, and out-right destructiveness in Obama's policies.

What has happened since November? Defenders of rational, self-interested values and lovers of freedom have been busy - for a small sampling check out this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, and this (The list goes on and on. My appologizes if I missed some good ones). Burgess was spot on with his comment. Obama is a bulls-eye.

In an interview with EdNews.org, Yaron Brook said in response to the question "What would John Galt say about the programs proposed by President Obama"

"Again, I don't want to be presumptuous and speak for John Galt, but certainly everything Obama is proposing today parallels what the political villains in Atlas Shrugged were proposing—and we know what John Galt thought of their actions. From Obama's first day in office, he has engaged in massive violations of individual rights and massive redistribution of wealth."

Indeed, they do parallel the villians of Atlas Shrugged. My assessment of Obama's philosophy has been (unfortunately) proven true.

But there is hope. The rise in Atlas Shrugged sales, the growth of "Tea Parties" protesting the growth of our government and attacks on our freedoms, and the frequent mention of Ayn Rand in the media give evidence that the ideas of Objectivism are not dying. Objectivism is not a philosophy of a few hard core fans. The ideas of Objectivism are spreading. They are spreading faster than I would have anticipated, mostly because of Obama's presidency.

Will Objectivist ideas take hold in our culture? I believe they are starting too, but its just a start. The right ideas must be defended and done so with vigor. I'm begining to see a glimour of hope in the not to distant future. I, for one, plan to step up my advocacy of reason, facts, individual rights, and freedom.

My energy prediction

Consider this...you are a electric company with several large coal plants and a desire to expand to meet growing demand. But given the current administration and congress's obsession with alternative fuels, its unclear what new laws, regulations, and research funding will effect the economic viability of a new plant. Would you want to start a multi-million dollar project, building a new electric power plant, when the outcome is so uncertain? What would you do? You could start research and investments in alternative fuels, but that return may be 20 years in the future. What about the increased demand in the next 5?

Here is my prediction. Current electric producers will underfund new development over the next 5 years because they are uncertain about the industry. Prices will begin a long rise. Politicians will react in predictable ways. They will cap energy prices. This will lead to shortages of energy leading to rolling brown outs and black outs (remember California?). Politicians will decry the "greediness" of energy companies and suggest higher taxes (like they did with the oil companies). And they will claim we need more incentives to switch to alternative fuels.

Just looking for investment opportunities.

Memristor

So what's in store for electronics?

There is a new technology on the horizon that should greatly change electronic devices, especially computers. It is an excellent case of theoretical physics meeting practical reality. In 1971 (not all that long ago), a physicist name Leon Chua theorized that a fourth primary electronic device should exist based on symmetry. The first three devices are known as the resister, capacitor, and inductor. They help control voltage, current, charge, and flux. This fourth device Chua named "Memristor" to stand for memory resistor. This device was hypothesized to store changes in current. Who would have expected that a fundamental electronic device would be discovered today, a couple hundred years after electricity became widely studied.

Fast forward 37 years. At HP labs, Stanley Williams and co-authors Dmitri Strukov, Gregory Snider and Duncan Stewart were able to formulate a physics-based model of a memristor and build nanoscale devices in their lab that demonstrate all of the necessary operating characteristics to prove that the memristor was real. They created the world's first memristor switch, capable of storing 1s and 0s for electronic computing. With this invention,

"Engineers could, for example, develop a new kind of computer memory that would supplement and eventually replace today's commonly used dynamic random access memory (D-RAM). Computers using conventional D-RAM lack the ability to retain information once they are turned off. When power is restored to a D-RAM-based computer, a slow, energy-consuming "boot-up" process is necessary to retrieve data stored on a magnetic disk required to run the system."

Besides the change in computer components, HP predicts:

"As for the human brain-like characteristics, memristor technology could one day lead to computer systems that can remember and associate patterns in a way similar to how people do.

"This could be used to substantially improve facial recognition technology or to provide more complex biometric recognition systems that could more effectively restrict access to personal information.

"These same pattern-matching capabilities could enable appliances that learn from experience and computers that can make decisions."

HP says that by 2012, the first memristor devices will be on the market.

The 12 step program to financial disaster

I've never heard of Nouriel Roubini until today. But thanks to Wendy McElroy's website, I now have. Roubini, in early February made the following predictions about the state of our economy

The Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown: The Twelve Steps to
Financial Disaster

While I will be the first to admit I understand only a small part of his article, a few thing jumped out at me.

First, this is the worst housing recession in US history...
Second, losses for the financial system from the subprime disaster...are now spreading to near prime and prime mortgages
Third, the recession will lead – as it is already doing – to a sharp increase in defaults on
other forms of unsecured consumer debt: credit cards, auto loans, student loans.

Sixth, it is possible that some large regional or even national bank...will go bankrupt.

Twelfth...A 1987 style stock market crash could occur leading to further panic and severe financial and economic distress.

I'm be no means an expert on the economy and know little about state of some of the things he talks about, but after this past week, it appear Roubini's prediction has come to fruition. I would say we should be prepared for a long recession.

The coming cataclysm?

After hearing about the State Representative, Monique Davis, in Illinois who essentially wants to silence atheists, I couldn't help but wonder if atheists in general or even specifically Objectivists will become a persecuted minority in the not to distant future. Is it something for Objectivists and Objectivists organizations to be mindful of? I think so and here's why.

The United States government is becoming increasingly Christianized, as has been noted by a number of people (such as hear, hear, and hear). The courts have historically kept the distance between church and state at arms length, but the push to bring "Christian" principles into government is certainly very strong today. Issues such as abortion, immigration, environmentalism, and anything to do with children are guided by explicitly Christian foundations. In the last several elections, many Republican candidates, including George W. Bush, explicitly ran on Christian platforms. Bush has instituted faith based initiatives that circumvent Congressional approval. Now Democratic candidates are playing the me-too game by touting their religious beliefs.

Coupled with the growth in Christianity are the increasing restrictions on individual rights. Eminent domain abuses have been legalized in Kelo. Parents are restricted in choosing schools for their children to attend, and sometimes out right denied any right at all. Political speech has already been limited in the McCain-Feingold bill. Other speech categories that our government has attempted restrict include alcohol advertising, porn, real estate advertising, and Internet publishing. And lets not forget about the FCC. There is a real danger to Objectivists from censorship, as Ms. Davis shows is on the mind of politicians.

History shows that the establishment will not quietly relinquish power. Most dramatic changes to government require revolution. It is rare that it is done peacefully. And yet Objectivists want radical change. Not only do they want radical change, they are very outspoken about it. Objectivists will likely garner the attention of the established political powers. And those political powers will want to silence the voice rather than risk losing it all.

Will it come to outright censorship? With America's current cultural climate, its not likely. One of our culture's most respected freedoms is freedom of speech. While there have been limited encroachments, the limitations seemed fairly restricted at this point. Could it change in 50 years? Absolutely. For the reasons stated above, I believe it could change to that extent. I've never had the privilege of reading Peikoff's Ominous Parallels, but synopses of the book suggest that fascism could visit the U.S. if we continue down the roads that Germany took in the 1920s. Presumably, this would include censorship. I believe that if things continue as they are now, within 50 years there will be public discussion about censorship of Objectivist ideas, even if it never passes into law.

Transistors in the future

Now this is cool technology.

Onward Ho!

Here's a book I'll have to read before too long. In an interview at Techstation Central, the author, Dr. Fogel, demonstrates his solid grasp of why humans are living longer and stronger today than they were 2 centuries ago. And has the data to back up his hypothesis.

It's all about the technology.

His massive historical analysis really followed life expectancy trends over the past couple centuries. He compares these trends with what was going on in society, such as massive immigration, urbanization, and technology innovation. For example, cities in the late 1800s had a lower life expectancies than rural areas, but innovations such as the automobile reduced pollutants like horse manure, so that people were able to live longer.

Its just great to see a scientist recognize the power of the mind to solve human problems. Unfortunately, Fogel doesn't extend this respect for intelligence to public policy, where he condones socialistic behavior.

But his points leave me feeling good about the future. As technological advances accelerate, so too will the quality of our lives. Not only can I expect huge medical and technological advances to occur before they matter to me, but my children may never know what all the fuss was about. Their lives will be one where most diseases have been cured or at least tempered by such an extent that it will be nothing to worry about.

I look forward to the future. Onward Ho!